The military exchanges in the Middle East have triggered significant movements in energy prices, along with operational and logistical tensions that are currently shaping purchasing decisions, risk-hedging strategies and investment choices worldwide.

1. The Strait of Hormuz

This maritime corridor is a strategic chokepoint through which around 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade passes, linking producers with consumer markets in Asia, Europe and the Americas.

Following attacks on energy facilities in Iran and the subsequent military responses, the situation has effectively led to a halt in commercial traffic through the strait. With this key route disrupted, operational risk levels have risen sharply and shipping companies have been forced to suspend or divert routes to avoid the conflict zone.

As a result, traffic has dropped dramatically, with more than 150 vessels currently waiting outside the strait and energy shipping transit down by as much as 70%.

In response, OPEC+ has agreed to increase production (around 206,000 barrels per day for April) in an attempt to ease supply shortages and stabilise prices.

Although large-scale releases of strategic reserves have not yet been announced by multilateral bodies such as the International Energy Agency (IEA), the situation has already sparked technical discussions about using these reserves as a tool to cushion price spikes during critical periods.

These developments help explain why markets are now factoring in an unprecedented risk premium in energy prices.

2. Rising oil and LNG prices

The most visible impact has been on prices.In European markets, LNG prices have risen by more than 40%, reaching levels not seen since the energy crisis triggered by the war in Ukraine in 2022.

The oil market has reacted in a similar way to the mounting tension. Brent crude, the global benchmark, has recorded significant gains, trading above USD 80 per barrel, while gasoil futures have climbed to around USD 1,057 per tonne. These increases reflect both perceived supply constraints and the geopolitical risk premium that market participants are now paying directly.

Major maritime insurers and financial institutions such as Goldman Sachs, NorthStandard and the MS&AD Group, among others, have translated these movements into a scenario in which Brent prices could reach USD 100 per barrel or higher. Only a few months ago this level seemed unlikely. Today, however, it has become part of the risk curves managed by large buyers, traders and hedge funds.

3. Structural implications for the energy market

The impact of this crisis goes beyond a temporary spike in prices. It is also producing structural effects that are reshaping how energy risk is assessed and managed.

• Transport logistics may change. With war-risk insurance premiums rising and in some cases cover being withdrawn for certain routes, shipping companies and cargo owners are considering longer and more expensive alternatives to maintain flows. These decisions can add weeks to transit times and increase overall supply-chain costs.
• Divergences between oil and gas markets are widening. While crude prices reflect the global perception of risk in liquid energy markets, LNG prices are proving particularly sensitive to physical supply disruptions, including those affecting key production facilities this year.
• Investor expectations are shifting. Indicators such as the volume of open positions in oil and gas futures, volatility-premium curves and capital flows towards safe-haven assets suggest that financial markets increasingly view the current situation as a systemic risk event.

Together, these dynamics are prompting a broader reassessment of the resilience of global energy supply chains, as well as the need for more comprehensive strategic approaches to mitigate risks arising from geopolitical disruptions beyond the sector’s direct control.

4. What does this crisis in Hormuz mean for Spain and Europe?

Spain

Although official estimates suggest that only around 5% of the oil and 2% of the gas imported by Spain pass through the Strait of Hormuz, the resulting energy price increases could still have a direct impact on both household and business costs.

European Union

Following the 2022 gas crisis, the EU has stepped up efforts to diversify its energy supply. This includes long-term LNG import agreements with the United States and the development of infrastructure designed to reduce dependence on single transit routes. These measures help mitigate the impact of disruptions, but they do not fully shield the market from global shocks.

5. What happens next?

It is important to remember that, while the global energy system remains resilient in many respects, the market’s sensitivity to any disruption highlights its underlying complexity.

Future developments will depend not only on the evolution of the political conflict, but also on how actual oil and gas flows change, how financial and logistical hedging mechanisms respond, and how suppliers and buyers interpret market signals in the weeks and months ahead.

What is already clear is that this episode is leaving a lasting mark on how energy risk is priced and understood worldwide.